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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 94

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(3:38) 8-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to TB 48, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth +0.51 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 94, worth -5.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

PUNT -2.50 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 52, worth -2.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model