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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 43

Carolina Panthers 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 10-L.Edwards punts 35 yards to TB 8, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 1-J.Darden.

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.14 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.35 EP
KICK +0.29 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.58 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP