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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 77

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(9:33) 8-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to CAR 31, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 13-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.24 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.52 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model