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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 19

Carolina Panthers 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24

What Actually Happened

(10:40) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 11-R.Anderson for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN [49-C.Gill].

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
What Happened
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.89 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.46 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model