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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 28

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 41 – Carolina Panthers 17

What Actually Happened

(1:56) 3-R.Succop 46 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +3.70 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 28, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model