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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 11 at the 65

Carolina Panthers 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 41

What Actually Happened

(:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep left to 16-B.Zylstra.

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +1.04 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 65, worth -1.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 23, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.76 EP