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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 50

Detroit Lions 14 – Green Bay Packers 13

What Actually Happened

(:42) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 8-J.Reynolds pushed ob at GB 39 for 11 yards (21-E.Stokes).

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.06 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 50, worth -1.85 EP
KICK -0.39 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model