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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
@
DET Home

Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
Sunday 2022-01-09 · 13:00 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread -4.0 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

GB
74.8%
DET
25.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.204 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • QB edge to GB: Jared Goff (DET) -0.064 vs Aaron Rodgers (GB) +0.258 EPA/dropback (DET starting Jared Goff in place of Tim Boyle)
  • DET defense: +0.084 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DET offense: -0.043 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

GB 27
–
DET 19
Projected margin: GB by 8 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

GB

Kingsley Keke DE Out Illness
Jaire Alexander CB Out Shoulder
David Bakhtiari T Questionable Knee
De'Vondre Campbell LB Questionable Elbow
Aaron Jones RB Questionable Knee

DET

Jason Cabinda FB Out Knee
Will Holden T Questionable Illness
Penei Sewell T Questionable Thumb
Michael Brockers DE Questionable Neck
Jared Goff QB Questionable Knee
Jonah Jackson G Questionable Elbow
Jalen Reeves-Maybin LB Questionable Shoulder
Josh Reynolds WR Questionable Thigh
Brock Wright TE Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 30
–
DET 37

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:46 TD GB (7:46) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 13-A.Lazard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – DET 0
  • Q1 01:41 TD DET (1:41) 85-T.Kennedy pass deep right to 11-K.Raymond for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 7 – DET 6
  • Q2 07:03 TD DET (7:03) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 7 – DET 13
  • Q2 02:41 TD GB (2:41) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 13-A.Lazard for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 13 – DET 14
  • Q2 00:05 FG DET (:05) 6-R.Patterson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. GB 13 – DET 17
  • Q3 12:59 TD DET (12:59) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 89-B.Wright for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 13 – DET 23
  • Q3 07:41 FG GB (7:41) 2-M.Crosby 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Wirtel, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez. GB 16 – DET 24
  • Q4 14:16 TD GB (14:16) (Shotgun) 27-P.Taylor right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 22 – DET 24
  • Q4 06:43 FG DET (6:43) 6-R.Patterson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. GB 22 – DET 27
  • Q4 05:01 TD GB (5:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 81-J.Deguara for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 28 – DET 27
  • Q4 02:00 TD DET (2:00) 32-D.Swift left tackle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 30 – DET 33
  • Q4 00:51 FG DET (:51) 6-R.Patterson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. GB 30 – DET 37

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 13 at the 65
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.21 EP
    p(convert) 30%

    (4:34) (Punt formation) 3-J.Fox pass incomplete short left to 35-G.Igwebuike.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 17 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 54%

    (3:04) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 35 yards to DET 7, Center-46-S.Wirtel, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 4 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 51%

    (12:50) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 81-J.Deguara to DET 42 for 1 yard (21-T.Walker).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 99%

    (7:03) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 1 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 34%

    (:42) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 8-J.Reynolds pushed ob at GB 39 for 11 yards (21-E.Stokes).

  • Q3 DET 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (14:45) 3-J.Fox punts 67 yards to GB 8, Center-47-S.Daly. 8-Am.Rodgers to GB 31 for 23 yards (46-C.Reynolds).

  • Q3 GB 4th & 7 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 94%

    (7:41) 2-M.Crosby 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Wirtel, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (6:17) 3-J.Fox punts 30 yards to GB 43, Center-47-S.Daly, downed by DET-57-A.Pittman.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 2 at the 16
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 94%

    (2:33) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 88-J.Winfree to DET 14 for 2 yards (25-W.Harris).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 8 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 93%

    (6:43) 6-R.Patterson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 4 at the 9 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 97%

    (:51) 6-R.Patterson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.