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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 75

Detroit Lions 17 – Green Bay Packers 13

What Actually Happened

(14:45) 3-J.Fox punts 67 yards to GB 8, Center-47-S.Daly. 8-Am.Rodgers to GB 31 for 23 yards (46-C.Reynolds).

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model