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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 17

Green Bay Packers 13 – Detroit Lions 24

What Actually Happened

(7:41) 2-M.Crosby 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Wirtel, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.58 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.35 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 17, worth -0.79 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 27, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model