4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 18

Detroit Lions 24 – Green Bay Packers 22

What Actually Happened

(6:43) 6-R.Patterson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.08 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 18, worth -1.27 EP
KICK +1.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT -0.93 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model