4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 9

Detroit Lions 34 – Green Bay Packers 30

What Actually Happened

(:51) 6-R.Patterson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +1.76 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +4.37 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 9, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +2.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.53 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.33 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model