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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 17 at the 42

Green Bay Packers 7 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(3:04) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 35 yards to DET 7, Center-46-S.Wirtel, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.10 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 42, worth -2.65 EP
KICK -0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -3.12 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 12, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model