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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 43

Green Bay Packers 7 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(12:50) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 81-J.Deguara to DET 42 for 1 yard (21-T.Walker).

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.00 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 43, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -0.68 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.71 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 12, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model