Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 69

Denver Broncos 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

(14:10) 6-S.Martin punts 65 yards to KC 4, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 17-M.Hardman to KC 9 for 5 yards (50-J.Griffith; 46-J.Bobenmoyer).

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.30 EP
51% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 69, worth -3.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model