Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- KC offense: +0.148 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
- QB edge to KC: Drew Lock (DEN) -0.079 vs Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.114 EPA/dropback
- KC defense: -0.083 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
- DEN defense: -0.041 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 18
KC
DEN
Pulled fresh for 2021 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 06:13 TD KC (6:13) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – DEN 0
- Q1 00:32 TD DEN (:32) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock scrambles up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 7 – DEN 6
- Q2 07:57 TD DEN (7:57) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock scrambles up the middle for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 7 – DEN 13
- Q2 02:22 FG KC (2:22) 7-H.Butker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. KC 10 – DEN 14
- Q3 10:52 TD KC (10:52) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 1-J.McKinnon for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN-29-B.Callahan was injured during the play. KC 16 – DEN 14
- Q3 09:11 TD DEN (9:11) 25-M.Gordon left guard for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 17 – DEN 20
- Q4 14:49 FG KC (14:49) 7-H.Butker 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. KC 20 – DEN 21
- Q4 07:57 TD KC (7:57) 25-M.Gordon right guard to KC 13 for -4 yards (24-M.Ingram). FUMBLES (24-M.Ingram), touched at KC 13, RECOVERED by KC-54-N.Bolton at KC 14. 54-N.Bolton for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 26 – DEN 21
- Q4 04:41 FG DEN (4:41) 8-B.McManus 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin. KC 28 – DEN 24
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 DEN 4th & 4 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(14:10) 6-S.Martin punts 65 yards to KC 4, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 17-M.Hardman to KC 9 for 5 yards (50-J.Griffith; 46-J.Bobenmoyer).
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Q2 KC 4th & 16 at the 16Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 94%
(2:22) 7-H.Butker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
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Q2 DEN 4th & 5 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(:31) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to KC 15, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 21-M.Hughes.
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Q3 KC 4th & 6 at the 43Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EPp(convert) 42% p(FG) 48%
(5:45) 5-T.Townsend punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.
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Q3 DEN 4th & 9 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(4:26) 6-S.Martin punts 36 yards to KC 43, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.
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Q3 KC 4th & 1 at the 48Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72% p(FG) 35%
(2:14) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 10-T.Hill to DEN 46 for 2 yards (23-K.Fuller).
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Q4 KC 4th & 6 at the 32Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 75%
(14:49) 7-H.Butker 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
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Q4 DEN 4th & 9 at the 13 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 96%
(4:41) 8-B.McManus 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.