Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 59

Denver Broncos 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

(:31) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to KC 15, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 21-M.Hughes.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +1.67 EP
56% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 59, worth -2.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model