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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 48

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Denver Broncos 21

What Actually Happened

(2:14) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 10-T.Hill to DEN 46 for 2 yards (23-K.Fuller).

The Three Options

GO +1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.90 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 48, worth -2.76 EP
KICK -1.20 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model