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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 32

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Denver Broncos 21

What Actually Happened

(14:49) 7-H.Butker 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.25 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 32, worth -1.51 EP
KICK +0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 42, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model