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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 57

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(10:50) 6-A.Cole punts 48 yards to LAC 9, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 7-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.85 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 57, worth -3.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model