Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- LAC offense: +0.092 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
- LV defense: +0.119 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
- LV offense: -0.059 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- Justin Herbert (LAC): +0.149 EPA/dropback in prior starts
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 18
LAC
LV
Pulled fresh for 2021 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 10:54 FG LV (10:54) 2-D.Carlson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LAC 0 – LV 3
- Q1 03:20 TD LV (3:20) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 13-H.Renfrow for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 0 – LV 9
- Q2 12:48 TD LAC (12:48) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler left guard for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 6 – LV 10
- Q2 02:00 TD LAC (2:00) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 30-A.Ekeler for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 13 – LV 10
- Q2 00:41 TD LV (:41) 28-J.Jacobs left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 14 – LV 16
- Q3 08:07 FG LV (8:07) 2-D.Carlson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LAC 14 – LV 20
- Q4 14:18 TD LV (14:18) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 13-H.Renfrow for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 14 – LV 26
- Q4 08:29 FG LV (8:29) 2-D.Carlson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LAC 14 – LV 29
- Q4 04:35 TD LAC (4:35) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep middle to 5-J.Palmer for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 20 – LV 29
- Q4 00:05 TD LAC (:05) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 81-M.Williams for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 28 – LV 29
- Q5 07:14 FG LV (7:14) 2-D.Carlson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LAC 29 – LV 32
- Q5 04:35 FG LAC (4:35) 6-D.Hopkins 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long. LAC 32 – LV 32
- Q5 00:02 FG LV (:02) 2-D.Carlson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LAC 32 – LV 35
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 LV 4th & 6 at the 6Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%
(10:54) 2-D.Carlson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
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Q1 LAC 4th & 2 at the 69Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EPp(convert) 64%
(9:22) 1-T.Long punts 55 yards to LV 14, Center-54-M.Overton. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 24 for 10 yards (31-N.Niemann; 49-D.Tranquill).
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Q1 LV 4th & 12 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(6:59) 6-A.Cole punts 46 yards to LAC 18, Center-47-T.Sieg. 7-A.Roberts to LAC 22 for 4 yards (17-T.Johnson). FUMBLES (17-T.Johnson), RECOVERED by LV-5-D.Deablo at LAC 23.
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Q1 LV 4th & 2 at the 15Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54% p(FG) 95%
(4:40) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 7-Z.Jones to LAC 13 for 2 yards (32-A.Gilman).
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Q2 LAC 4th & 2 at the 19Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 58% p(FG) 92%
(13:23) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 15-J.Guyton to LV 14 for 5 yards (5-D.Deablo).
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Q2 LV 4th & 6 at the 43Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EPp(convert) 39% p(FG) 51%
(9:01) 6-A.Cole punts 33 yards to LAC 10, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 7-A.Roberts.
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Q2 LAC 4th & 13 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(:19) 1-T.Long punts 51 yards to LV 27, Center-54-M.Overton. 13-H.Renfrow ran ob at LV 36 for 9 yards (31-N.Niemann).
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Q3 LV 4th & 8 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(10:50) 6-A.Cole punts 48 yards to LAC 9, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 7-A.Roberts.
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Q3 LAC 4th & 1 at the 82Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 76%
(8:57) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to LAC 16 for -2 yards (96-D.Philon, 33-R.Teamer).
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Q3 LV 4th & 6 at the 12Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 96%
(8:07) 2-D.Carlson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
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Q3 LAC 4th & 10 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(6:43) 1-T.Long punts 56 yards to LV 19, Center-54-M.Overton. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 32 for 13 yards (88-T.McKitty). PENALTY on LV-32-D.Leavitt, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at LV 32.
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Q4 LV 4th & 5 at the 34Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 73%
(8:29) 2-D.Carlson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
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Q4 LAC 4th & 6 at the 18Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 93%
(5:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 81-M.Williams to LV 13 for 5 yards (35-B.Facyson). Los Angeles Chargers challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 81-M.Williams to LV 12 for 6 yards (35-B.Facyson).
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Q4 LV 4th & 16 at the 81 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(2:16) 6-A.Cole punts 54 yards to LAC 27, Center-47-T.Sieg. 7-A.Roberts ran ob at LAC 38 for 11 yards (5-D.Deablo). PENALTY on LAC-37-K.Hall, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 27.
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Q4 LAC 4th & 10 at the 83 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.53 EPp(convert) 40%
(1:49) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 13-K.Allen to LAC 28 for 11 yards (29-C.Hayward).
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Q4 LAC 4th & 10 at the 43 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.09 EPp(convert) 35% p(FG) 51%
(:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 81-M.Williams to LV 29 for 14 yards (10-D.Trufant).