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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 6

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:54) 2-D.Carlson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +2.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.38 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 6, worth +0.48 EP
KICK +2.38 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.30 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model