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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 69

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(9:22) 1-T.Long punts 55 yards to LV 14, Center-54-M.Overton. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 24 for 10 yards (31-N.Niemann; 49-D.Tranquill).

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.10 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 69, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 27, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP