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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 83

Los Angeles Chargers 22 – Las Vegas Raiders 29

What Actually Happened

(1:49) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 13-K.Allen to LAC 28 for 11 yards (29-C.Hayward).

The Three Options

GO -2.14 EP
What Happened
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.88 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 83, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 41, worth -1.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.53 EP