Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 12 at the 64

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:59) 6-A.Cole punts 46 yards to LAC 18, Center-47-T.Sieg. 7-A.Roberts to LAC 22 for 4 yards (17-T.Johnson). FUMBLES (17-T.Johnson), RECOVERED by LV-5-D.Deablo at LAC 23.

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.96 EP
69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model