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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 58

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Cincinnati Bengals 23

What Actually Happened

(8:32) 6-A.Cole punts 41 yards to CIN 17, Center-47-T.Sieg. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 29 for 12 yards (22-K.Nixon; 87-F.Moreau).

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.25 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 58, worth -3.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 18, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP