4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
LV Away

Las Vegas Raiders

HC Rich Bisaccia
@
CIN Home

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
Saturday 2022-01-15 · 16:30 Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati US 🥶 Cold Spread 6.0 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

LV
29.8%
CIN
70.2%
🥶 Cold

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CIN offense: +0.092 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Joe Burrow (CIN): +0.173 EPA/dropback in prior starts (CIN starting Joe Burrow in place of Brandon Allen)
  • LV offense: -0.031 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • LV defense: +0.086 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • CIN defense: -0.045 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LV 19
–
CIN 26
Projected margin: CIN by 7 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 19

LV

Johnathan Hankins DT Questionable Back

CIN

Josh Tupou DT Doubtful Knee
Jalen Davis CB Questionable Ankle
Stanley Morgan WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 19 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LV 19
–
CIN 26

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:28 FG LV (9:28) 2-D.Carlson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 3 – CIN 0
  • Q1 04:35 TD CIN (4:35) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 87-C.Uzomah for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 3 – CIN 6
  • Q1 01:18 FG CIN (1:18) 2-E.McPherson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. LV 3 – CIN 10
  • Q2 10:23 FG CIN (10:23) 2-E.McPherson 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. LV 3 – CIN 13
  • Q2 07:58 FG LV (7:58) 2-D.Carlson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 6 – CIN 13
  • Q2 02:00 TD CIN (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 83-T.Boyd for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 6 – CIN 19
  • Q2 00:19 TD LV (:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 7-Z.Jones for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 12 – CIN 20
  • Q3 11:00 FG CIN (11:00) 2-E.McPherson 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. LV 13 – CIN 23
  • Q4 14:20 FG LV (14:20) 2-D.Carlson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 16 – CIN 23
  • Q4 06:49 FG CIN (6:49) 2-E.McPherson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. LV 16 – CIN 26
  • Q4 03:37 FG LV (3:37) 2-D.Carlson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 19 – CIN 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 3 at the 28
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 79%

    (9:28) 2-D.Carlson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 8 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 95%

    (1:18) 2-E.McPherson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 11 at the 99
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (14:24) 6-A.Cole punts 58 yards to CIN 41, Center-47-T.Sieg. 11-T.Taylor to LV 45 for 14 yards (58-K.Wilber).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 12 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (10:23) 2-E.McPherson 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 8 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

    (7:58) 2-D.Carlson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 1 at the 31
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 73%

    (3:33) 1-J.Chase right end pushed ob at LV 16 for 15 yards (5-D.Deablo).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 6 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 84%

    (11:00) 2-E.McPherson 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 4 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 48%

    (8:32) 6-A.Cole punts 41 yards to CIN 17, Center-47-T.Sieg. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 29 for 12 yards (22-K.Nixon; 87-F.Moreau).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 16 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 93%

    (14:20) 2-D.Carlson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 1 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.70 EP
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 96%

    (6:49) 2-E.McPherson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 5 at the 56 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (4:27) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 1-D.Jackson ran ob at CIN 30 for 26 yards (20-E.Apple).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 3 at the 10 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 96%

    (3:37) 2-D.Carlson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 4 at the 68 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (2:00) 10-K.Huber punts 33 yards to LV 35, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-31-Mi.Thomas.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 9 at the 9 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.83 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

    (:17) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle intended for 7-Z.Jones INTERCEPTED by 57-G.Pratt at CIN 2. 57-G.Pratt to CIN 4 for 2 yards (7-Z.Jones).