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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 28

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(9:28) 2-D.Carlson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.15 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 28, worth -1.46 EP
KICK +0.79 EP
What Happened
  • 79% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 38, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP