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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 10

Cincinnati Bengals 23 – Las Vegas Raiders 16

What Actually Happened

(6:49) 2-E.McPherson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +3.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.16 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 10, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.70 EP