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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 10

Las Vegas Raiders 16 – Cincinnati Bengals 26

What Actually Happened

(3:37) 2-D.Carlson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +2.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.00 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 10, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model