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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 68

Cincinnati Bengals 26 – Las Vegas Raiders 19

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 10-K.Huber punts 33 yards to LV 35, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-31-Mi.Thomas.

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +0.61 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 68, worth -3.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.41 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 26, worth -1.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP