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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 9

Las Vegas Raiders 19 – Cincinnati Bengals 26

What Actually Happened

(:17) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle intended for 7-Z.Jones INTERCEPTED by 57-G.Pratt at CIN 2. 57-G.Pratt to CIN 4 for 2 yards (7-Z.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +2.06 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.93 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 9, worth +0.10 EP
KICK +2.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.00 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.83 EP