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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 13

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(1:18) 2-E.McPherson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +2.05 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.93 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 13, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 23, worth -0.62 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model