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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 11 at the 99

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(14:24) 6-A.Cole punts 58 yards to CIN 41, Center-47-T.Sieg. 11-T.Taylor to LV 45 for 14 yards (58-K.Wilber).

The Three Options

GO -4.14 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth -0.09 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 99, worth -6.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (116 yards).

PUNT -3.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 53, worth -3.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model