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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 37

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(3:55) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right to 18-J.Reagor (24-C.Davis). PENALTY on TB-24-C.Davis, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.04 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.72 EP
KICK -0.30 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.61 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model