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Philadelphia Eagles

9-8 HC Nick Sirianni
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

13-4 HC Bruce Arians
Sunday 2022-01-16 · 13:00 ET Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US 🌧 Rain Spread 7.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

PHI
31.2%
TB
68.8%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • TB offense: +0.132 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • PHI defense: -0.030 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • PHI offense: +0.060 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • TB defense: -0.110 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Tom Brady (TB): +0.168 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Wind 21 mph

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

PHI 19 12–26
–
TB 24 17–31
Projected margin: TB by 5 Projected total: 43

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 19

PHI

Nate Herbig G Questionable Ankle
Josh Sweat DE Questionable Illness

TB

Cyril Grayson WR Out Hamstring
Ronald Jones RB Out Ankle
Giovani Bernard RB Questionable Hip
Lavonte David LB Questionable Foot
Justin Watson WR Questionable Quadricep
Carlton Davis CB Questionable Back
Sean Murphy-Bunting CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 19 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 15
–
TB 31

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:05 TD TB (10:05) 25-G.Bernard right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 0 – TB 6
  • Q1 00:28 TD TB (:28) 64-A.Stinnie reported in as eligible. 21-K.Vaughn left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB-66-R.Jensen was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. PHI 0 – TB 13
  • Q2 09:20 FG TB (9:20) 3-R.Succop 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion. PHI 0 – TB 17
  • Q3 07:42 TD TB (7:42) 64-A.Stinnie reported in as eligible. 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 87-R.Gronkowski for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 0 – TB 23
  • Q3 05:25 TD TB (5:25) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 0 – TB 30
  • Q4 12:15 TD PHI (12:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 35-B.Scott left guard for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 6 – TB 31
  • Q4 04:51 TD PHI (4:51) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 14-K.Gainwell for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 13 – TB 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (8:07) 8-A.Siposs punts 27 yards to TB 43, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 TB 4th & 3 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 18%

    (7:06) 8-B.Pinion punts 31 yards to PHI 19, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 18-J.Reagor.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 PHI 4th & 9 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (4:34) 8-A.Siposs punts 36 yards to TB 30, Center-45-R.Lovato. 1-J.Darden to TB 30 for no gain (33-J.Scott).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 PHI 4th & 13 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (14:20) 8-A.Siposs punts 46 yards to TB 30, Center-45-R.Lovato. 1-J.Darden to TB 31 for 1 yard (48-P.Johnson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TB 4th & 16 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 92%

    (9:20) 3-R.Succop 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 PHI 4th & 4 at the 47
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 24%

    (6:09) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 88-D.Goedert to TB 37 for 10 yards (54-L.David).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 PHI 4th & 10 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 51%

    (3:55) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right to 18-J.Reagor (24-C.Davis). PENALTY on TB-24-C.Davis, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TB 4th & 16 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (2:31) 8-B.Pinion punts 50 yards to PHI 34, Center-97-Z.Triner. 18-J.Reagor ran ob at PHI 39 for 5 yards (48-G.Stuard).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TB 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (:27) 8-B.Pinion punts 61 yards to PHI 19, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-52-K.Britt.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 PHI 4th & 10 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 29%

    (12:13) 8-A.Siposs punts 36 yards to TB 9, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 1-J.Darden.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TB 4th & 5 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (10:46) 8-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to PHI 47, Center-97-Z.Triner. 18-J.Reagor MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by TB-43-R.Cockrell at PHI 48.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 PHI 4th & 3 at the 54
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (5:39) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right intended for 6-D.Smith INTERCEPTED by 58-S.Barrett at TB 47. 58-S.Barrett to PHI 36 for 17 yards (68-J.Mailata).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 PHI 4th & 7 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (4:01) 8-A.Siposs punts 58 yards to TB 11, Center-45-R.Lovato. 1-J.Darden to TB 19 for 8 yards (33-J.Scott).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TB 4th & 10 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:11) 8-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to PHI 21, Center-97-Z.Triner. 18-J.Reagor to PHI 20 for -1 yards (30-D.Delaney).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 PHI 4th & 13 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (:06) 8-A.Siposs punts 49 yards to TB 34, Center-45-R.Lovato. 1-J.Darden to TB 38 for 4 yards (89-J.Stoll).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TB 4th & 13 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:04) 8-B.Pinion punts 61 yards to PHI 4, Center-97-Z.Triner. 18-J.Reagor ran ob at PHI 35 for 31 yards (52-K.Britt).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TB 4th & 2 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (9:17) 8-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to PHI 13, Center-97-Z.Triner. 18-J.Reagor MUFFS catch, and recovers at PHI 7. 18-J.Reagor to PHI 7 for no gain (49-C.Gill).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TB 4th & 1 at the 14 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 94%

    (1:16) 25-G.Bernard right end to PHI 16 for -2 yards (49-A.Singleton).

    See the full breakdown →