Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 16 at the 84

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

(2:31) 8-B.Pinion punts 50 yards to PHI 34, Center-97-Z.Triner. 18-J.Reagor ran ob at PHI 39 for 5 yards (48-G.Stuard).

The Three Options

GO -2.63 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.63 EP
68% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 84, worth -4.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model