Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 80

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

(:27) 8-B.Pinion punts 61 yards to PHI 19, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-52-K.Britt.

The Three Options

GO -2.01 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.55 EP
62% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 80, worth -3.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model