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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 54

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24

What Actually Happened

(5:39) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right intended for 6-D.Smith INTERCEPTED by 58-S.Barrett at TB 47. 58-S.Barrett to PHI 36 for 17 yards (68-J.Mailata).

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.69 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model