Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 69

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31

(4:01) 8-A.Siposs punts 58 yards to TB 11, Center-45-R.Lovato. 1-J.Darden to TB 19 for 8 yards (33-J.Scott).

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.03 EP
60% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model