Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 13 at the 65

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

(13:04) 8-B.Pinion punts 61 yards to PHI 4, Center-97-Z.Triner. 18-J.Reagor ran ob at PHI 35 for 31 yards (52-K.Britt).

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.47 EP
68% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 65, worth -3.65 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model