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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 14

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31 – Philadelphia Eagles 15

What Actually Happened

(1:16) 25-G.Bernard right end to PHI 16 for -2 yards (49-A.Singleton).

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +2.12 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 14, worth -0.33 EP
KICK +2.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.76 EP