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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 61

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(11:22) 6-P.Harvin punts 47 yards to KC 14, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.92 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 61, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.11 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 20, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP