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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
KC Home

Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2022-01-16 · 20:15 GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US 🥶 Cold Spread 13.0 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

PIT
20.5%
KC
79.5%
🥶 Cold

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.196 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • PIT offense: -0.105 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • QB edge to KC: Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.162 vs Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) -0.059 EPA/dropback
  • KC defense: -0.066 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PIT 18
–
KC 29
Projected margin: KC by 11 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 19

PIT

Najee Harris RB Questionable Elbow

KC

Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB Out Shoulder
Darrel Williams RB Questionable Toe

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 19 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 21
–
KC 42

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 10:51 TD PIT (10:51) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 17-M.Hardman. 17-M.Hardman FUMBLES (Aborted) at KC 28, recovered by KC-31-Da.Williams at KC 29. 31-Da.Williams to KC 28 for -1 yards (97-C.Heyward; 93-J.Schobert). FUMBLES (97-C.Heyward), RECOVERED by PIT-90-T.Watt at KC 26. 90-T.Watt for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 6 – KC 0
  • Q2 05:50 TD KC (5:50) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 1-J.McKinnon for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 7 – KC 6
  • Q2 02:00 TD KC (2:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 13-B.Pringle for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on PIT-56-A.Highsmith, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced between downs. PIT 7 – KC 13
  • Q2 00:22 TD KC (:22) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 87-T.Kelce for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 7 – KC 20
  • Q3 10:18 TD KC (10:18) 73-N.Allegretti reported in as eligible. 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 73-N.Allegretti for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 7 – KC 27
  • Q3 09:20 TD KC (9:20) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 7 – KC 34
  • Q3 04:15 TD PIT (4:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 18-D.Johnson for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 13 – KC 35
  • Q4 14:18 TD KC (14:18) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 87-T.Kelce. 87-T.Kelce pass short middle to 13-B.Pringle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 14 – KC 41
  • Q4 07:41 TD PIT (7:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 13-J.Washington for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 20 – KC 42

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (13:32) 6-P.Harvin punts 54 yards to KC 21, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 17-M.Hardman to KC 42 for 21 yards (28-M.Killebrew; 27-M.Allen).

  • Q1 KC 4th & 8 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (12:07) 5-T.Townsend punts 41 yards to PIT 15, Center-41-J.Winchester. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 23 for 8 yards (54-N.Bolton).

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 8 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (11:05) 6-P.Harvin punts 56 yards to KC 19, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 17-M.Hardman to KC 20 for 1 yard (48-D.Tuszka; 35-A.Maulet).

  • Q1 KC 4th & 1 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.65 EP
    p(convert) 73% p(FG) 25%

    (8:53) 5-T.Townsend punts 33 yards to PIT 18, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 14-R.McCloud.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 13 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (6:46) 6-P.Harvin punts 55 yards to KC 30, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 17-M.Hardman pushed ob at PIT 22 for 48 yards (44-D.Watt).

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 13 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (4:12) 6-P.Harvin punts 42 yards to KC 20, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-46-C.Kuntz.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 8 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 25%

    (:07) 5-T.Townsend punts 32 yards to PIT 19, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 14-R.McCloud.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 2 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (11:22) 6-P.Harvin punts 47 yards to KC 14, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (4:46) 6-P.Harvin punts 41 yards to KC 26, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 21-M.Hughes.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 5 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (1:06) 6-P.Harvin punts 53 yards to KC 28, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 10-T.Hill to KC 20 for -8 yards (28-M.Killebrew).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69%

    (12:17) 24-B.Snell right end to PIT 42 for 8 yards (49-D.Sorensen, 22-J.Thornhill).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 2 at the 20
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 91%

    (8:10) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 18-D.Johnson to KC 15 for 5 yards (54-N.Bolton).