Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 75

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

(13:32) 6-P.Harvin punts 54 yards to KC 21, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 17-M.Hardman to KC 42 for 21 yards (28-M.Killebrew; 27-M.Allen).

The Three Options

GO -2.61 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
67% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 75, worth -4.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model