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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 67

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(4:46) 6-P.Harvin punts 41 yards to KC 26, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 21-M.Hughes.

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.49 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 67, worth -3.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 25, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP