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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 66

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 42

What Actually Happened

(12:17) 24-B.Snell right end to PIT 42 for 8 yards (49-D.Sorensen, 22-J.Thornhill).

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.71 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 66, worth -3.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 24, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model