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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 20

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 42

What Actually Happened

(8:10) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 18-D.Johnson to KC 15 for 5 yards (54-N.Bolton).

The Three Options

GO +2.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.73 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 20, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30, worth -1.27 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model