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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 13 at the 85

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(6:46) 6-P.Harvin punts 55 yards to KC 30, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 17-M.Hardman pushed ob at PIT 22 for 48 yards (44-D.Watt).

The Three Options

GO -3.42 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.57 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 85, worth -5.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 43, worth -2.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model