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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 13 at the 62

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(4:12) 6-P.Harvin punts 42 yards to KC 20, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-46-C.Kuntz.

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.55 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 62, worth -3.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model